Just a few years ago, an industrial solar power plant (SPP) was considered an unquestionably profitable investment. Today the market has changed — and changed fundamentally. At EDS, we conducted a detailed analysis of actual hourly electricity prices for 2023–2026 and identified which models of combining solar generation with battery energy storage systems (BESS) actually work, and what determines the choice between them.

 

Why is the investment potential of classic SPPs declining?

 

Ukraine's total installed solar capacity has exceeded 6.8 GW. In 2024, 0.8 GW of new stations came online; in 2025, another 1.5 GW. By the end of 2026, an additional 2.2 GW is expected. This means one thing: an oversupply precisely during the daytime hours of the warm season, when all stations generate at peak simultaneously.

 

The result: during peak generation hours, the wholesale market price drops sharply. A plant produces the most kilowatt-hours exactly when they are worth the least. And during the hours when prices rise — evening, night, morning — solar generation is minimal or absent.

 

Vasyl Sokolov, EDS Financial Analyst:

"The more solar generation appears in the system, the greater the pressure on daytime prices. The classic model of an industrial SPP selling into the wholesale market has already shifted from a high-yield investment category into the segment of conservative assets. The fundamental shift isn't about 'more megawatts' — it's about managing timing: precisely when that energy reaches the market."

 

What do the numbers show? According to 2025 data, a classic SPP delivered a payback period of 6.8 years in hryvnia (7.7 years in dollars) and an IRR (internal rate of return — a measure of the annual percentage return earned by every invested hryvnia or dollar over the life of the project) of 14.8% and 13% respectively. In 2026, the NPV (net present value — the difference between all future project income and all costs, adjusted for the fact that money today is worth more than the same money tomorrow) of such projects turns negative — meaning the investment no longer even offsets the time value of capital.

 

The economics of hybrid solutions: four key configurations

 

EDS carried out detailed calculations for various integration options and has already implemented the most effective of them in practice.

 

Model 1. Sequential

 

Suited to SPP owners who hold technical connection conditions only for selling electricity, without the ability to purchase it from the grid to charge a storage system.

 

The logic is simple: during daytime hours the storage unit charges from the solar plant, and in the evening, when prices rise, it sells the stored energy back to the grid. One change — and the plant starts earning on the evening price peak, not just during the day.

 

Payback: 6.2 years in hryvnia / 7 years in dollars. IRR: up to 14%. The model outperforms a standalone SPP, though with lower efficiency in winter.

 

Vasyl Sokolov, EDS Financial Analyst:

"This model is a natural first step for owners of operating SPPs. It improves the economics without changing the project's legal status. And if the opportunity to obtain connection conditions for purchasing electricity appears in the future, the installation easily transitions to the next, significantly more profitable model."

 

Model 2. Parallel with a single cycle

 

The SPP and BESS are located on the same site and connected at the same connection point but operate independently. The solar plant sells all of its generation at current market prices. The storage system acts as an independent trader: charging at night or during the day when electricity is cheap, and selling in the evening when the price peaks.

 

This is one of the most predictable and balanced models. On days with moderate price volatility, the SPP earns more; on days with sharp price swings, the storage system earns more. Such a system is inherently more diversified.

 

Payback: 4 years in hryvnia / 4.3 years in dollars. IRR: up to 24%.

 

As an example, consider one such implemented project from the EDS portfolio: an autonomous energy hub for a large industrial enterprise — a 7 MW solar plant (14,300 JinkoSolar panels, 22 Huawei inverters) and a 6 MWh BESS. AI-based dispatching with 95% accuracy selects the optimal charging and discharging windows.

 

Model 3. Parallel with a double cycle

 

An enhanced version of the previous model. Where the market allows, the storage system performs two charge-discharge cycles per day — for example, night-to-morning and day-to-evening, between two price peaks.

 

The storage unit charges at night and sells in the morning at the first price peak, then charges again during the midday dip and sells in the evening at the second peak. This works where the market shows a clear daily structure with two separated price minimums and two maximums, and the spread between them is sufficient to cover the cost of each charging cycle. Given the current volatility of the Ukrainian market, this profile occurs regularly.

 

This is the most profitable model among all hybrid SPP + BESS configurations.

 

Payback: 3.8 years in hryvnia / 4 years in dollars. IRR: up to 26%.

 

Vasyl Sokolov, EDS Financial Analyst:

"We tell clients honestly: the double cycle is maximally profitable over the short-term horizon, especially given current market volatility. However, over a 7–10 year horizon, the market could gradually become saturated with dispatchable capacity, and the second cycle may lose margin. That's why we classify this model as the most profitable, but with a higher level of long-term risk compared to the single-cycle version."

 

Model 4. E-mobility hub

 

The most comprehensive solution: a full-scale energy hub combining EV charging infrastructure with a commercial zone. Base configuration: 2 MW of solar generation, 6–8 MWh of storage, 6–8 fast-charging stations up to 480 kW each, and a 450–500 m² commercial zone (food court, retail, services).

 

Revenue is generated from several sources simultaneously: electricity sales to EV drivers, grid sales, commercial space leasing, and advertising revenue. EDS delivers such hubs turnkey — from site selection through launch and ongoing support.

 

Vasyl Sokolov, EDS Financial Analyst:

"Investors entering this segment now are building a position in infrastructure whose demand will only keep growing. The question is no longer whether to consider such solutions, but how quickly you can find a team capable of delivering them."

 

Which model is right for you

 

The choice between models depends on several key parameters:

 

Connection technical conditions. If you hold connection conditions only for selling electricity, the sequential model is available. Having connection conditions for purchasing opens up parallel configuration options.

 

Existing SPP ownership. Owners of existing plants should start with the sequential model, without changing the facility's legal status.

 

Site location. For an e-mobility hub, transport accessibility is critical. The other models are not dependent on infrastructure specifics, aside from the availability of a connection to the relevant regional grid operator's network.

 

Each of the models discussed has its own advantages and constraints, so the optimal solution always depends on technical conditions, investment goals, and site-specific factors. At the same time, market analysis shows that in 2026–2027, the greatest value will be created by projects that combine generation, storage, and flexible energy management. These are precisely the solutions shaping the new standard for profitable energy infrastructure today.